L.H. Immers and B.J. de Wilde

Possibilities for Bicycle Transport in Developing Countries

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PROFILE OF STUDY AREA

Tanzania is a socialist one-party state in which the Party, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi, is supreme over all institutions of state (Fig 1.). At present the population of this East African country is about 20 million. Over 75 per cent of the population lives on the periphery of the country while the cenral part is sparsely poputaled. The annual gnp per capita stands at $260, a figure that is representative for more than half of the entire world population but at the same time is less than 3 per cent of the (weighted) average for the industrial market economies (3).

Tanzania is totally dependent on imports for its oil requirements. Fig. 2 shows how oil expenditure increased about 1,000 per cent over the past decade, while the volume of imported oil products remained constant. In 1972 the oil bill used 10 per cent of the foreign exchange earnings compared to 60 per cent in 1982 (4). Tanzania cannot compensate for the rise in the oil bill by rising the prices of its products since the terms of trade unfavorable.

FIGURE 1: The United Repulic of Tanzania.

FIGURE 2: Cost development and Import of fuel.

At the time of the 1978 population census 87 per cent of the Tanzanian population was living in rural areas (6), where agriculture is Iraditionally the mainslay of the economy and the livelihood of 80 per cent of the people. In spite of effords to establish producer co-operatives the regional activilty system stilI remains large areas of subsistence farms or "shambas", which contribute to the Gross Domestic Product for 39 per cent (2). Acreage depends on the labor availability within the family owning the land but about 83 per cent of the 2.5 million farm holdings have less than 2 hectares under cultivation (8).

To achieve national economic goals Tanzania's industrial policy for a long time emphasized the need of investments to take place in urban areas (9). Attracted by better prospects, rural migration soared to previously unknown heights. Nearly three quarters of the current growth in urban population is attributed to immigration (10). Most towns have annual growth rates in the 10 to 12 per cent range though extraordinary rates of 18 per cent and even more do occur (11).