Ministry of Transport and Public Works

Evaluation of the Delft Bicycle Network Plan

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Excerpt from: Bicycle Reference Manual for Developing Countries. Edited by Barbara Gruehl Kipke, April 1991.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK - Approach

Aggregate changes in travel patterns result from changes at the micro-level of individual travel behaviour on the one hand, and from changes in the size of various classes of travellers, due to external factors like demography, labour market etc.. Aggregate or macro-level indicators of travel are traffic volumes, modal shares, etc., whereas micro- level behaviour refers to modal choice, route choice, etc..
Individual travel behaviour may be affected by measures of the bicycle network plan, as well as by other factors like car ownership decisions. The diagram below illustrates the interrelationship between these elements.

Missing flow chart.

Changes in individual travel behaviour to be investigated refer to:

  • trip frequency
  • modal transfer (to and from the bicycle)
  • destination choice
  • route choice
  • perceived cycling conditions.

It is necessary to determine the alterations in the bicycle system that made people to travel differently and why they did so. Understanding this causal relationship is necessary to formulate adequate traffic policies for the unmotorized transport modes. This insight indicates measures that have to be taken in order to achieve certain modifications in travel behaviour.

In this section only direct short term reactions of individuals are dealt with choice of a different time of departure, of a different mode, of a different route, etc.. In view of the evaluation study design the outcomes of the investigations only enable these reactions to be determined. It should be realized, however that these changes constitute only a part of the total behavioural response to the plan. Long-term responses are difficult to estimate at this moment. The importance of the long-term effects should not be underestimated, given the rapid change in the area's population characteristics and its activity pattern (on average every seven year a person changes Address, Job or school).

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